We haven't really completed the section on Probability, but I thought it might be refreshing to start a project that we can work on from time to time in Jared's Statistics class. This will be tied in – eventually – with an exercise in Probability at a later date.

In today's class we concentrated on situations in which we are looking at two probabilities, and we have to decide whether they are independent or dependent. Furthermore, some independent events may be mutually exclusive, or not. These all have consequences on how we combine the probabilities of two (or more) events occurring.

We're finally embarking on a more structured approach to the concept of Probability. Today we started with first principles (that we had touched upon in the past few lessons), such as what does a probability of 1 or 0 signify and how are they expressed, and what might examples of independent and dependent events be. We finished class with a TED talk given by Nobel prizewinner Murray Gell Mann in which he talked not only about the beauty of mathematical equations used to describe certain physical concepts, but also about probability in physics.

We tackled the formulae for permutations and combinations, and looked at some practical examples involving both. We had briefly covered permutations before the SAT, and I have a feeling that Jared was quite confident of how he answered those problems, so today was more a question of formalizing the math behind these concepts.

We finished watching the NASA documentary. Jared remained attentive throughout both classes.

Jared completed the problems in Drill 2 in the SAT revision book, which focused on ratios and percentages. Next week, we shall return to the normal Statistics schedule.

In our Statistics class, we studied the Probability and Permutations practice problems in the SAT review book.

Jared was absent today.

We barreled through the SAT practice test book also for the Statistics class. We mainly covered Algebra problems, since they are in the majority and Jared appeared to be more concerned about these, but we will also review the Statistics topics in the days to come.

Jared had worked so hard during the first class today, that for Statistics we watched a TED talk given by Seth Shostak, the director of SETI. In the talk, Dr. Shostak recounted a bit on the history of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, and then touched on the probabilities of finding it. After the video, Jared and I discussed the Drake equation again, and Jared understood how the whole equation is based on subjective probabilities. We discussed the subject in terms of all three approaches to calculating a probability in light of their pros and cons.